What should I expect in the coming year? Which emerging developments and trends should I focus on? These questions, or ones like them, are what we at NEACH hear every year around this time.
In response, I asked NEACH President & CEO, Sean Carter, AAP, APRP; Senior Vice President, Chief Growth and Partnerships Officer Elyssa Morgan, AAP, APRP; and NEACH Payments Group (NPG) Vice President and Subsidiary Director Caitlyn Mullins-Smith, AAP, APRP, NCP, questions about what our members need to know as they look to the year ahead.
The world is changing quickly, with payment trends accelerating, regulations shifting, and the fraud environment growing more complex. Here are the trends the NEACH/NPG team suggests you keep top of mind for 2026.
What do you see as the top trends impacting FIs this year?
Carter: First, I see how financial institutions and FinTechs implement AI and how stablecoins develop as a viable payment option as key shifts in the landscape. I also think how our members respond to and adapt to Nacha’s fraud monitoring rules from both the RDFI and ODFI perspectives will be a big focus; I will be keeping an eye on the changing requirements that ODFIs place on their clients to prevent credit push fraud. And with fraud always an industry issue, we’ll continue our efforts to support our members in addressing the latest schemes. For instance, our Municipal Banking Work Group will focus on developing digital and fraud playbooks.
Casali: With AI, fraud is accelerating across the industry, and fraud detection and prevention will become even more critical as increasingly sophisticated schemes emerge. Due to rising fraud, one of my main goals this year is to develop educational programs and resources to help FIs identify and implement effective fraud controls across their organizations. I also anticipate a trend toward FI/FinTech partnerships focusing on integrating AI into fraud detection and mitigation.
Morgan: Our members will continue looking to seize new revenue opportunities through emerging trends like deposit competition. And, as you mentioned, fraud is another focus area because it is constantly changing, with new trends emerging almost daily. With the payments landscape evolving so quickly, I think it’s important that our members develop a payments roadmap that supports their growth goals. To help, NEACH will offer insights, growth strategies, and market intelligence that enable members to make informed decisions at the executive and strategic levels.
Mullins-Smith: Four emerging trends and new developments come to mind immediately: real-time fraud prevention, digital experiences, new revenue streams through value-added services and products, and partnerships. To support our members in addressing these trends, NPG will develop best practices for real-time fraud prevention. Additionally, we will provide opportunities and insights to help members enhance their digital experiences and meet evolving customer/member expectations. We will also identify ways to support FIs in exploring new revenue streams through value-added services, embedded finance, and partnerships.
Of course, our overall goal at NPG is to prepare clients for upcoming changes in compliance frameworks. These four areas represent the intersection of innovation, risk management, and revenue growth. By concentrating on fraud prevention, digital strategy, and regulatory readiness, we will help our clients thrive in a rapidly changing payments landscape while keeping security and compliance top priorities.
What do you think we should expect from stablecoins, AI, instant payments, regulation/compliance, and fraud in 2026?
Casali: You’re right when you say things are rapidly changing. Every day, we hear about a new stablecoin or AI development, a regulatory shift, a demand for faster solutions, or a new fraud scheme emerging. For my part, I think this is the year where financial institutions will play a vital role in the adoption of stablecoins, whether through developing infrastructure or partnering to that end. I anticipate stablecoins to gain momentum in 2026, particularly for international transactions, but they will remain impractical for daily purchases, at least in the year ahead. On a different note, the industry will see real progress and adoption of real-time payment solutions. While “request for payment” functionality exists, current usage is low, although I expect it to grow in the upcoming year.
Carter: I expect formal rulemaking to play a key role in implementing the GENIUS Act, with stablecoin payments becoming more widespread, even at merchant terminals. Regarding AI, I believe financial institution boards will develop AI policies and strategies to improve employee productivity, allowing them to focus on revenue-generating tasks and fraud prevention. Until the midterms, the environment will likely stay favorable for federal regulators. Nacha may also issue RFIs regarding the adoption of the new risk management framework. Finally, AI fraud will continue to pose major problems as scammers become more sophisticated and use stablecoins. To that point, corporations will need to prioritize protecting themselves against more advanced attacks.
Morgan: I agree. I think stablecoins will move from niche to mainstream in 2026, impacting payments, liquidity, and treasury operations. AI will become more advanced and widespread, bringing benefits like cost savings, efficiency, and increased revenue, while also raising risks such as fraud, deepfakes, and cyberattacks. Additionally, instant payments will rapidly expand in 2026, with real-time settlement becoming the norm as customers/members demand speed and convenience. 2026 will also be a year of adjustment and mandatory compliance deadlines, with financial institutions needing to remain vigilant to stay ahead. Finally, fraud will remain a major challenge in 2026, with persistent threats such as social engineering and business email compromise. As threats grow more sophisticated, strong policies, layered controls, and ongoing training remain crucial, since the human element is the weakest link.
Mullins-Smith: My thoughts align. In the stablecoin space, I expect to see increased regulatory clarity, potential integration into mainstream payment systems for rewards-based programs, and cross-border efficiency. I also expect AI to expand into broader applications such as fraud detection, compliance monitoring, and personalized financial services. We will also see a significant increase in instant payments volume, including use cases beyond P2P, such as B2B and bill payments. In the regulatory and compliance area, I anticipate a stronger focus on third-party and vendor compliance, data privacy, BSA/AML compliance, and faster payment risk frameworks. Lastly, in fraud prevention, I expect more regulatory scrutiny of fraud monitoring practices, a bigger push to reduce and eventually eliminate check processing, and ongoing growth in P2P and A2A fraud.
In summary
As our responses show, in 2026, FIs and FinTechs will need to stay ahead of regulatory changes, invest in technology to improve payment security, and prioritize education to effectively navigate the evolving financial landscape. Additionally, you will need to address Nacha’s fraud monitoring rules, develop digital and fraud tools, and consider AI implementation and the development of stablecoins as viable payment options.
Now that we’ve gained insight into what to expect in the year ahead, let’s dive into what to do in response to these trends and developments. In our 2026 Predictions Part 2, the NEACH/NPG team provides practical steps to respond to these industry shifts and position your FI for success in the year ahead.
To help you respond to these trends and prepare for 2026, NEACH offers education programs designed to support innovation, compliance, and growth at every level of your organization:
We look forward to working with you throughout the year to successfully identify opportunities in today’s dynamic environment.